United Van Lines 2021 Movers Survey by Age
New Jersey
Total Inbound: 29.5%
Total Outbound: 70.5%
| INBOUND | OUTBOUND | |
|---|---|---|
| 18.03% | < 18 to 34 | 7.59% |
| 18.03% | 35 to 44 | 8.24% |
| 18.85% | 45 to 54 | 16.49% |
| 13.11% | 55 to 64 | 32.97% |
| 31.97% | 65 or older | 34.71% |
Understanding the housing market takes more than real estate experience and a crystal ball these days. You almost need a masters in economics and psychology. There are broad strokes on what motivates individuals and the financial market but wading through those details is a confusing rabbit hole. Here’s what we know and why it’s still a good time to buy a new home.
The New Jersey Exodus — a title that has been kicked around in both brokerages and the Capital. High taxes, bad roads, and cold weather all feed into the conversation — everyone is leaving New Jersey. Is this really true? Home sale inventory is at an all time low, the GSP is still packed with cars, and lines at the grocery store don’t seem any smaller. But every year United Van Lines publishes their Annual National Movers Study showing a high rate of people moving out of NJ.
over the years, the change from inbound to outbound movers has steadily shown that more people are moving out of NJ than coming in. Broadly speaking 34% in and 64% out. The reasons provided for both are moving for employment. Since a large segment of employees have the availability to work from anywhere with a wifi connection, NJ residents may not be as willing to leave their friends and family in pursuit of a new position. There has already been a significant decrease from pre pandemic numbers. In 2019, 34.76% left NJ for their job. Comparatively, 2021 saw 19.83% leaving for employment.
So is there an exodus? According to the U.S. Census, no. The overall population has risen from 2010 to 2020 — 5.7% increase. The data has revealed that the state is older and more diverse than in years past. Hudson, Ocean and Essex counties were the top three with the largest population growth. But with an aging population in NJ, those taking the jump into retirement are still leaving. And with very few moving into NJ specifically for retirement, the state may never be able to balance the exodus. There is also an argument that the household income of residents moving-in is lower than those moving-out. Vetting this though is another rabbit hole for another day.
Whether the exodus is real or not, it’s still a good time to buy a home. Here are 3 reasons why:
1. We won't see a buyer's market for a while.
As the housing market stabilizes, inventory will begin to grow but so will buyer demand. In other words, the market isn’t going back to a buyer’s market anytime soon. So you may as well stay on the journey for “the one”. Consider a professional’s tip, offer no contingencies or an escalation cap in your offer. Demonstrating your desire and ability to accommodate the seller may win you favor.
2. NJ neighorhoods going up in value.
An emerging trend: The 15 Min Lifestyle. PWC recently released a report detailing what real estate developers are seeing. “People want that 15-minute lifestyle if they can get it. They want walkable, amenitized, real places that allow them to live fuller lives without having to get into a car and transition from one segment of their life to another.” It’s possible that counties with a walkable footprint to amenities will continue to see growth and resident longevity in the coming years.
3. Mortgage rates are still good.
Though we have all been spoiled by low mortgage rates over the past 3 years, they are still today well below where they were during the recession of the 80s. In fact, rates today are still below the 30 year average of 7.78%. Meaning, rates may continue to climb so a homebuyer would benefit by taking on a mortgage now rather than a year from now.